Across England, local elections are taking place on 7th May, which will determine the political make-up of councils responsible for providing essential public services. More than 5,000 council seats across 136 local authorities are being contested. Many of these seats were last fought in 2022 during a very different political landscape.
These elections are widely being viewed as a key moment of pressure for the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. For opposition parties, including the Conservatives and Reform, they are being viewed as ‘mid-terms’ or a referendum on the Labour Government. But as we head towards May, Labour has the challenge of defending councils that were won at the height of dissatisfaction with the then Conservative administration.
Predictions from the psephologist, Professor Stephan Fisher, show that the political make up of local government could look entirely different post elections this May. Based on current national polling being converted into votes, Labour and the Tories are expected to be the big losers, losing 1,900 and 1,010 seats respectively. But Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could be the big winners, if the party can convert its current poll lead, it could be on track to win over 2,200 seats.
A defining part to these predictions is that rather than control swapping between the main parties, many councils may move towards becoming complex coalitions or minority administrations. This is most likely to occur in metropolitan boroughs and larger authorities where party competition is intensified.
For around 4.6 million people, May’s elections were not always going to take place. The Government had approved plans to delay 30 council elections due to impending local government reorganisation, whereby two-tier local government systems are being replaced by single unified authorities, alongside expanded devolution. However, following a legal challenge from Reform, the Government abandoned its plans to postpone them in January this year.
The elections come at a time when significant waste reforms in the form of Simpler Recycling are beginning to be rolled out for many. These changes are landing against a tumultuous political backdrop. The May local elections will test the government mid-term, reshape control of councils across England and, in some areas, play out alongside the early stages of local government reorganisation. Structural changes, political turnover and service reform are all converging at once. In this context, this year’s elections could be the most interesting we’ve seen in recent years.
